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Do you ever wonder why some blog posts are so popular and others get no notice?

Researchers Leskovec and Yang have wondered this and did something about it by analyzing patterns in how news stories are shared online. Their findings can help predict the rise and fall of popularity of news stories and the sharing of news stories, according to Naine’s article “Will You Tweet This? New analysis could help predict how stories will be shared.”

While the article does not give much detail on what exactly the findings are, or how we as blog and digital media composers can use this to get readers, there are a few things to take away from the article you may find helpful:

  • Media matters: The media used to break the story impacts the patterns of sharing. Blogs, for instance, tend to lead to sharing for a longer period of time. (So if you want your 15 minutes to be more like 20, make sure you are blogged about.)
  • Time matters: “50 percent or more of the attention a story gets happens within the first hour, and 80 percent or more happens within the first 24″ (2)
  • Other things matter: Topic, site of story origin, and “nature of the community of readers at which it’s aimed” (1) can all impact spread too.

The researchers can predict to a 75% accuracy rate the popularity of stories. If you want to be able to do the same, I suggest you check out their publications.

Leskovec plans to continue this research and look at things like “how information changes as it travels, possibly gaining insight into how rumors and inaccuracies are introduced” (2)–or how the game telephone works online.

I’m posting this on the same day the story is out, following the pattern, and found about it from a tweet, also following the pattern. So, the question is: Will you tweet this? Blog it? Share it?

Link:

Will You Tweet This? New analysis could help predict how stories will be shared”: http://www.technologyreview.com/web/27083/

Something to say?